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Toronto home sales down by 22%
GTA Realtors® Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Figures
Greater Toronto Realtors® reported 2,623 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during the first two weeks of September 2010. This represented a 22% decrease compared to the 3,361 sales recorded during the same period in 2009. Year-to-date sales amounted to 65,455, representing a six per cent increase compared to 2009.
"Sales remain below the record pace we experienced in the second half of 2009. The prospect of higher interest rates and new mortgage lending guidelines resulted in higher than normal sales in the first few months of the year. To balance this out, the pace of sales has slowed in the second half," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.
"It is important to note that year-to-date sales remain above the number reported through the same period last year," added Johnston. The average price for September mid-month transactions was $412,367 — up five per cent compared to the average of $393,818 recorded during the first 14 days of September 2009.
"Under current lending standards, the average selling price is affordable for a household earning the average income in the GTA. The annual price growth we have been experiencing has been justified by this positive affordability picture," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
September 17, 2010 in Toronto Real Estate Board | Permalink
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Comments
"I do agree that we have had a 22 percent drop in sales due to the high inventory"
How do more listings lead to fewer sales?
Posted by: Alex | Oct 4, 2010 5:37:07 AM
"I do agree that we have had a 22 percent drop in sales due to the high inventory, but the average sales price is still up by 6 percent! That's a lot!"
Exactly the market is overpriced no matter how you cut it.
Posted by: Behavioral Finance | Sep 29, 2010 10:33:03 PM
I dont understand why people are complaining. Homes in Markham, Vaughan, and Toronto are selling and in some cases we are getting multiple offers. The only reason some homes are sitting on the market is because they are either in poor condition, in a less then desirable location or most importantly not priced right.
I do agree that we have had a 22 percent drop in sales due to the high inventory, but the average sales price is still up by 6 percent! That's a lot!
Price it Right People!
For More Market Info go to http://www.akteam.ca/toronto-market-information
and
William K
Posted by: wk | Sep 29, 2010 9:47:54 AM
If the data for the first two weeks of September hold up for the rest of the month, that will make it the worst September in absolute terms since 2001. And it would represent a 52% drop in sales from May.
That would be quite a headline drop, but bear in mind that May is always the high-water mark for sales in *any* year. For the last decade, September sales are, on average, 26.5% lower than May sales.
The "up 5% from last year" is one way to look at the data. Another - probably more important way is to note that prices typically rise 4% between August and September. This year, the rise is 0.3%.
Or, to put it yet another way, September prices are usually between 4 and 5% below May prices (that's an average, between 2000 and 2010 - in any given year the drop is between 2 and 8%); this year it's about 7.5%.
In other words, this fall's trend can't reasonably be construed as a rout yet. What you have is a drop in prices which is on the high side but not totally outside of recent experience, combined with a significant drop in volume.
Whether we're in the middle of a major correction depends on how you interpret the drop in volume. If it's happening despite an increase in listings, if average days on the market is increasing rapidly, then the low sales probably reflect loss aversion on the part of sellers - bids are coming in significantly lower than asking, meaning that overall demand is sagging even more than the headline figures would imply and prices can be expected to keep dropping.
If the drop in volume really is, as TREB keeps saying, because house sales were "moved forward" this year, then prices might be expected to stabilize. My guess is the former, based on the reasons some other posters have put forward, but tat's just a guess.
There's two numbers to watch in the full-month report out next week.
1) Total sales: Anything below 5000 would make this the worst September in a decade
2) Days on Market: TREB data on this doesn't go back that far, but 40 days in September would appear to be unprecedented and would suggest real weakness in the market - a marker of more price declines to come.
Posted by: Alex | Sep 29, 2010 4:06:42 AM
DOWN AGAIN? Toronto home sales down by 22%!
Last month was DOWN by 22% , July DOWN 37% ,June DOWN 23% which was BEFORE the HST so NO ONE rushed to buy. The housing crash is a FACT and realtors want to spin so you can buy an overvauled home which is crashing price. Anyone who bought in May in Toronto is down $35,000 or 8% which means they are underwater on their mortgage.
Realtors can lie all they want but the FACT is sales have CRASHED and prices are down 8% in the GTA or OVER $35,000 in just four months and that is a FACT.
Posted by: pete | Sep 27, 2010 7:03:08 PM
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