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Toronto home sales down by 22%
GTA Realtors® Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Figures
Greater Toronto Realtors® reported 2,623 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during the first two weeks of September 2010. This represented a 22% decrease compared to the 3,361 sales recorded during the same period in 2009. Year-to-date sales amounted to 65,455, representing a six per cent increase compared to 2009.
"Sales remain below the record pace we experienced in the second half of 2009. The prospect of higher interest rates and new mortgage lending guidelines resulted in higher than normal sales in the first few months of the year. To balance this out, the pace of sales has slowed in the second half," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.
"It is important to note that year-to-date sales remain above the number reported through the same period last year," added Johnston. The average price for September mid-month transactions was $412,367 — up five per cent compared to the average of $393,818 recorded during the first 14 days of September 2009.
"Under current lending standards, the average selling price is affordable for a household earning the average income in the GTA. The annual price growth we have been experiencing has been justified by this positive affordability picture," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
September 17, 2010 in Toronto Real Estate Board | Permalink
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Comments
"I do agree that we have had a 22 percent drop in sales due to the high inventory"
How do more listings lead to fewer sales?
Posted by: Alex | Oct 4, 2010 5:37:07 AM
"I do agree that we have had a 22 percent drop in sales due to the high inventory, but the average sales price is still up by 6 percent! That's a lot!"
Exactly the market is overpriced no matter how you cut it.
Posted by: Behavioral Finance | Sep 29, 2010 10:33:03 PM
I dont understand why people are complaining. Homes in Markham, Vaughan, and Toronto are selling and in some cases we are getting multiple offers. The only reason some homes are sitting on the market is because they are either in poor condition, in a less then desirable location or most importantly not priced right.
I do agree that we have had a 22 percent drop in sales due to the high inventory, but the average sales price is still up by 6 percent! That's a lot!
Price it Right People!
For More Market Info go to http://www.akteam.ca/toronto-market-information
and
William K
Posted by: wk | Sep 29, 2010 9:47:54 AM
If the data for the first two weeks of September hold up for the rest of the month, that will make it the worst September in absolute terms since 2001. And it would represent a 52% drop in sales from May.
That would be quite a headline drop, but bear in mind that May is always the high-water mark for sales in *any* year. For the last decade, September sales are, on average, 26.5% lower than May sales.
The "up 5% from last year" is one way to look at the data. Another - probably more important way is to note that prices typically rise 4% between August and September. This year, the rise is 0.3%.
Or, to put it yet another way, September prices are usually between 4 and 5% below May prices (that's an average, between 2000 and 2010 - in any given year the drop is between 2 and 8%); this year it's about 7.5%.
In other words, this fall's trend can't reasonably be construed as a rout yet. What you have is a drop in prices which is on the high side but not totally outside of recent experience, combined with a significant drop in volume.
Whether we're in the middle of a major correction depends on how you interpret the drop in volume. If it's happening despite an increase in listings, if average days on the market is increasing rapidly, then the low sales probably reflect loss aversion on the part of sellers - bids are coming in significantly lower than asking, meaning that overall demand is sagging even more than the headline figures would imply and prices can be expected to keep dropping.
If the drop in volume really is, as TREB keeps saying, because house sales were "moved forward" this year, then prices might be expected to stabilize. My guess is the former, based on the reasons some other posters have put forward, but tat's just a guess.
There's two numbers to watch in the full-month report out next week.
1) Total sales: Anything below 5000 would make this the worst September in a decade
2) Days on Market: TREB data on this doesn't go back that far, but 40 days in September would appear to be unprecedented and would suggest real weakness in the market - a marker of more price declines to come.
Posted by: Alex | Sep 29, 2010 4:06:42 AM
DOWN AGAIN? Toronto home sales down by 22%!
Last month was DOWN by 22% , July DOWN 37% ,June DOWN 23% which was BEFORE the HST so NO ONE rushed to buy. The housing crash is a FACT and realtors want to spin so you can buy an overvauled home which is crashing price. Anyone who bought in May in Toronto is down $35,000 or 8% which means they are underwater on their mortgage.
Realtors can lie all they want but the FACT is sales have CRASHED and prices are down 8% in the GTA or OVER $35,000 in just four months and that is a FACT.
Posted by: pete | Sep 27, 2010 7:03:08 PM
Sales have dropped...but prices are still on the rise.
Posted by: Vincent La Fiura | Sep 26, 2010 2:04:33 PM
Looks like you can't buy a break up there. I really hope that this starts turning around fast.
Posted by: Pablo Edwards | Sep 26, 2010 12:57:44 PM
Glad I sold into the bubble. Realtors are getting worried as sales have crashed 30% for the last four months and if september is bad (first half was bad) will be 5 months in a row. Prices are now following and expected to fall for years. It's going to be a buyers market for years and no amount of realtor lies will change it. Remeber realtors only get paid if they sell and now a days they are not selling much. Drive anywhere in the city and all you see is FOR SALE and nothing is moving. The smart money (even realtors I know) have sold and will not buy back until prices drop 30-45%. Right now prices in the GTA have dropped 6-8% which is on average over $35000 in just four months. BTW Vancouver Real Estate is crashing and will crash much harder then Toronto.
Posted by: Frank | Sep 26, 2010 11:22:11 AM
It's not time to panic. Right now it's buyers market but buyers market won't last longer than 6 months and these buyers are smart. There are just too many properties for them to choose. Just have to be patient.
Posted by: VancouverRealEstate | Sep 25, 2010 7:32:31 PM
We are in a tendency of prices falling down but my question is where is the bottom.
They are the factors that should impact on the housing prices:
- Economy growth (no one expects any growth as USA will not recover soon and Canadian economy depends on it)
- Interest rates (not expected to move)
- Mortgage law (which may require a bigger down-payment)
- Unemployment (expected to increase)
- Inflation (expected to rise as FED is announcing and other Central Banks)
- The period of time this economical uncertainty is going to last.
Posted by: peter | Sep 21, 2010 12:01:42 PM
@ Bill - The problem with anecdotal evidence is it can be found to support or deny any situation. I dont think there's much statistical data out there, but looking at the Big 5 financials it seems to show that they are decreasing the amount of money they allocate to bad loans from a year ago.
Posted by: Geoff | Sep 20, 2010 4:00:00 PM
Hi Dom , just wonder where you heard about people in Toronto being behind on their mortgages? Was out last weeks witha few buddies who ran into other buddies some of whom are in the banking/mortgage biz. The housing market was being talked about and these mortgage guys where saying there is now a big problem with people behide on their mortgages. I know the housing market for sales is bad but now it seems there is a problem with people paying their mortgages.
Posted by: Bill K | Sep 20, 2010 3:17:09 PM
Same in Edmonton. The market has slowed down and the inventory is failry high. It is definitely a buyer's market.
Posted by: Edmonton Real Estate | Sep 20, 2010 1:52:23 PM
The housing market in Toronto is really starting to crash. Right now you have people trying to sell their flips who can't , people trying to sell their condo's before they are even built and now you have people who have bigger mortgages then their homes are worth. Sales and prices are falling and now you hear that people are behide on mortgage payments. The best thing for people to do is wait for the market to correct and not buy into this problem.
Posted by: Dom | Sep 20, 2010 11:08:22 AM
DOWN AGAIN? Toronto home sales down by 22%!
Last month was DOWN by 22% , July DOWN 37% ,June DOWN 23% which was BEFORE the HST so NO ONE rushed to buy. The housing crash is a FACT and realtors want to spin so you can buy an overvauled home which is crashing price. Anyone who bought in May in Toronto is down $35,000 or 8% which means they are underwater on their mortgage.
Posted by: Pete | Sep 17, 2010 9:36:17 AM
