« Lender warns of housing bubble | Main | Toronto Real Estate Board »
MLS home sales forecast revised
Monthly MLS home sales activity continues to run strong, with new monthly records set in July, September, and October. This has prompted The Canadian Real Estate Association to revise its MLS home sales forecast for 2009 and 2010. CREA now forecasts national activity will reach 460,200 units in 2009, up 6.6 per cent from last year. CREA's previous forecast issued in August had annual sales this year about even with 2008 levels. The new sales forecast for 2009 puts activity about on par with annual activity in 2004, but below levels reported for the years 2005 through 2007.
British Columbia and Ontario are still forecast to post annual increases in activity this year, but the forecast has been lifted as a result of recent record level activity in both provinces. In addition, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Prince Edward Island are also now forecast to post an annual increase in activity in 2009. Forecast declines in annual activity have been trimmed for Manitoba and Nova Scotia, and are little changed for New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.
National MLS home sales activity is forecast to rise seven per cent to 492,300 units in 2010. This is a slightly larger rise in activity than previously forecast. This would make 2010 the second highest year on record for sales, putting activity below the peak reached in 2007, and slightly above the 2005 and 2006 figures. New annual records are forecast for Manitoba and Quebec in 2010.
The forecast increase in activity for 2010 reflects significant weakness in activity recorded in the first quarter of 2009. Monthly activity in 2010 is expected to trend downward from recent heights, but the sharp drop inactivity recorded in the in the first quarter of 2009 is not expected to repeat in 2010.
New listings began declining in the third quarter of 2008, as many sellers took their home off the market pending an improvement in housing market conditions. CREA's previous forecast suggested that average price increases in the second half of 2009 would likely result in mild a rebound in listings. In the third quarter of 2009, the number of new listings did post the first quarterly increase in more than a year, which coincided with the return of strong average price increases. New residential listings are expected to continue trending upward.
The national MLS average home price is forecast to climb 4.2 per cent in 2009, reaching a record $317,900. This is an upward revision from the 1.5 per cent gain in CREA's previous forecast, and reflects the high degree to which the national average price was skewed downward last year by a significant decline in activity in Canada's priciest markets, and then upward by the rebound in activity.
Alberta remains the only province with a forecast decline in average price in 2009 (-3.0 per cent). Average prices are forecast to rise in all other provinces, with gains ranging from a low of 1.5 per cent in British Columbia to 13.1 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Average prices are forecast to climb a further 4.7 per cent in 2010. Much of the annual increase reflects weakness in the average price in first quarter of 2009, which is not expected to repeat in 2010. Average sale prices are forecast to rise in every province in 2010.
The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS average price is forecast to climb 2.9 per cent in 2009, with a further 4.0 per cent rise in 2010. CREA previously forecast that the weighted national average price for MLS homes sales would hold steady from 2009 to 2010.
"Pent-up demand built in late 2008 and early 2009, as many buyers moved to the sidelines pending an improved economic outlook," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "With the economic outlook having improved since then, the release of that pent-up demand will boost activity over the rest of the year and in 2010."
"Significant weakness in activity and average prices seen in late 2008 and earlier this year is not expected to repeat in 2010, so 2010 will look a lot better by comparison," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "The raised outlook for MLS sales activity in 2010 still puts annual activity below the pre-recession peak recorded for 2007."
CREA MLS Residential Market Forecast:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010
Annual Annual Annual
MLS residential percen- percen- percen-
unit sales tage 2009 tage 2010 tage
forecast 2008 change Forecast change Forecast change
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canada 431,823 -17.1 460,200 6.6 492,300 7.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
British Columbia 68,923 -33.0 84,700 22.9 95,400 12.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alberta 56,399 -21.0 58,050 2.9 64,800 11.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saskatchewan 10,194 -15.4 10,700 5.0 11,400 6.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manitoba 13,525 -2.9 13,050 -3.5 14,050 7.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ontario 181,001 -15.2 191,700 5.9 200,400 4.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quebec 76,762 -4.8 78,900 2.8 82,150 4.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Brunswick 7,555 -7.4 6,950 -8.0 7,200 3.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nova Scotia 10,869 -8.3 10,000 -8.0 10,550 5.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prince Edward
Island 1,413 -20.1 1,450 2.6 1,450 0.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newfoundland 4,695 5.0 4,250 -9.5 4,300 1.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010
Annual Annual Annual
MLS residential percen- percen- percen-
average price tage 2009 tage 2010 tage
forecast 2008 change Forecast change Forecast change
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canada 304,971 -0.7 317,900 4.2 333,000 4.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
British Columbia 454,599 3.5 461,600 1.5 478,900 3.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alberta 352,857 -0.9 342,300 -3.0 360,500 5.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saskatchewan 224,592 28.8 233,200 3.8 244,700 4.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manitoba 190,296 12.5 202,600 6.5 218,700 7.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ontario 302,354 0.9 315,100 4.2 326,800 3.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quebec 215,307 3.7 224,300 4.2 232,400 3.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Brunswick 145,762 6.7 153,600 5.4 158,100 2.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nova Scotia 189,932 4.9 196,000 3.2 204,100 4.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prince Edward
Island 139,944 4.9 146,900 5.0 150,700 2.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newfoundland 178,477 19.6 201,900 13.1 213,600 5.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association
November 16, 2009 in Canadian Market Forecast | Permalink
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c51e453ef012875a8541e970c
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference MLS home sales forecast revised:
Comments
hi Guy,
You'd prefer "houses can only go up in value" or "they aren't making any more land"? How about "in these tough economic times". Paris Hilton is probably the epitome of this all.. and I think her life will end just fine.
Posted by: gobransonhomes | Nov 25, 2009 2:29:08 AM
Well even Paris Hilton will die at the end of her life.
You'd prefer "houses can only go up in value" or "they aren't making any more land"? How about "in these tough economic times"
Let's reduce everything to a soundbite to keep the simple people on point. How else can you make a point, nobody is listening anymore. Now it's all just "too negative".
Posted by: Trevor | Nov 23, 2009 4:22:38 PM
Paris Hilton is probably the epitome of this all.. and I think her life will end just fine. (God I hate that expression.... "this can't end well.") We live on a planet that survives because of the Sun, and all stars eventually burn out... so everything can't end well if you really want to find the negative/pessimistic viewpoint of everything.
Posted by: Geoff | Nov 23, 2009 9:00:34 AM
Here watch these vids and get your time back:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1640-MUST-WATCH-Glenn-Beck-And-The-Dollar-Carry.html
Posted by: Trevor | Nov 20, 2009 11:26:43 AM
lol Geoff! I just wonder what value they will offer to the world. This can't end well...for them especially. Happy for them, why? They have nothing but material wealth. Small peanuts. It's a lot of hardship when you have to accept a much different reality in your adult years and this will change for them for sure, in fact it already has. Suicide and depression will rise for these kids. Go MTV cribs, go! Feed into "prosperity", glut and all. Raising the next environmental destroyers to have "something nice", something man made. It all rides on the backbone of environmental destruction and there will be a price. Just google environmental destruction in China to see the backbone of consumption.
Posted by: Trevor | Nov 20, 2009 10:12:57 AM
Trevor -- man that first link you sent, can I send you a bill for the time I wasted reading that? Two words to the author: WANH-WANH. Oooh kids have hot tubs they don't like.. wanh-wanh. there are millions of people out there who'd look at our lifestyle (a busy starbucks on every corner) with the same envy that the author clearly has for these kids. Don't begrudge people for being successful and indulging their children as that author is clearly doing. Wanh-wanh! ;)
Posted by: Geoff | Nov 19, 2009 11:12:02 AM
I can see that you are putting a lot of time and effort into your blog and detailed articles! I am deeply in love with everycal single piece of information you post here. Will be back often to read more updates!
Deirdre G
Posted by: house for sale philippines | Nov 19, 2009 12:21:07 AM
The major correction in the market is behind us and as long as Global economy is stable. Canada is definitely in a great spot. As we have seen in Edmonton, the real estate market has improved dramatically with inventory continuously decreasing while the sales remain strong.
Derek H.
Posted by: Edmonton Real Estate - Derek Hulewicz | Nov 18, 2009 3:42:01 PM
I gotcha. Yes probably a waste, but at least it keeps us busy to wonder and dream of something more rational.
Here's some stuff to keep you occupied:
http://www.suburbanempire.com/content/unreality-television
http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/11/the-fate-of-the-yeast-people.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1ZeXnmDZMQ
Posted by: Trevor | Nov 18, 2009 11:55:23 AM
Trevor you misunderstand me -- I think it's sad to be frustrated about reality; to work hard to change it, to make a difference in this world, to adapt, evolve, and adjust, is not. To get frustratated is a waste, just like labelling people 'bulls' or 'bears' is. There will be a bull market, there will be a bear market after it, so it was written and so it shall be. But to get frustrated that what one hopes for has yet to pass... seems sad to me and a waste of the previous years granted to us. YMMV.
Posted by: Geoff | Nov 18, 2009 11:37:09 AM
And dude, you don't really think this is going to last forever...has the last bear turned bull? I feel sorry for your friends...and some of mine. Chewing on that massive debt...so sad...let me have a brief cry for them and their greed.
Posted by: Trevor | Nov 18, 2009 11:24:41 AM
lol. You think it's sad to be frustrated at a world so spun on fiction and gorging on cheap debt and oil? Now that's sad, really. How fuct does the world need to become before we fix it? Does it really need to be totally beyond repair? Does the entire thing need to implode, does a dynasty have to turn to civil war? What is the straw that breaks this? And it WILL break, it has to.
Posted by: Trevor | Nov 18, 2009 11:19:14 AM
Why is it propaganda? I've known two people personally who bought houses in TO lately, and both had to endure bidding wars so at least the stats bear some resemblance to reality (however warped reality is, but then again if people are getting frustrated with reality that's just kinda sad, really).
Posted by: Geoff | Nov 18, 2009 9:26:31 AM
haha Geoff. I think everyone is getting tired of the B.S. If you want to read comments read the G&M! People are getting really frustrated. You know everything is about dead when the general public looses interest so maybe this is a sign. I'm starting to lose interest too as I've stopped posting to local blogs as well. Just too much propaganda by the people profiting. It's salesmanship afterall.
Posted by: Trevor | Nov 18, 2009 9:12:19 AM
Anyone else remember the good ole days of 2008 when this type of posting would get lots of comments?
Posted by: Geoff | Nov 16, 2009 11:04:08 AM
