Toronto Real Estate Board
GTA Realtors Report Mid-Month Housing Market Figures
In the first two weeks of November, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 3,666 sales – up 84 per cent compared to the first two weeks of November 2008. The average price for these transactions was up 10 per cent year-overyear to $415,066.
Increased interest in ownership housing has been widespread throughout the GTA and across all housing types,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Tom Lebour. “However, it is important to point out that we are now making comparisons to the fall of 2008 when we experienced a marked decline in sales and average price” Year-to-date sales, at 78,233 are up 11 per cent compared to 2008. Average price, at $393,180, is up by three per cent.
“Sales and average price in the GTA this winter will be well above levels reported throughout the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009," according to Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
See the Toronto Real Estate Board report »
November 18, 2009 in Toronto Real Estate Update | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
MLS home sales forecast revised
Monthly MLS home sales activity continues to run strong, with new monthly records set in July, September, and October. This has prompted The Canadian Real Estate Association to revise its MLS home sales forecast for 2009 and 2010. CREA now forecasts national activity will reach 460,200 units in 2009, up 6.6 per cent from last year. CREA's previous forecast issued in August had annual sales this year about even with 2008 levels. The new sales forecast for 2009 puts activity about on par with annual activity in 2004, but below levels reported for the years 2005 through 2007.
British Columbia and Ontario are still forecast to post annual increases in activity this year, but the forecast has been lifted as a result of recent record level activity in both provinces. In addition, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Prince Edward Island are also now forecast to post an annual increase in activity in 2009. Forecast declines in annual activity have been trimmed for Manitoba and Nova Scotia, and are little changed for New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.
National MLS home sales activity is forecast to rise seven per cent to 492,300 units in 2010. This is a slightly larger rise in activity than previously forecast. This would make 2010 the second highest year on record for sales, putting activity below the peak reached in 2007, and slightly above the 2005 and 2006 figures. New annual records are forecast for Manitoba and Quebec in 2010.
The forecast increase in activity for 2010 reflects significant weakness in activity recorded in the first quarter of 2009. Monthly activity in 2010 is expected to trend downward from recent heights, but the sharp drop inactivity recorded in the in the first quarter of 2009 is not expected to repeat in 2010.
New listings began declining in the third quarter of 2008, as many sellers took their home off the market pending an improvement in housing market conditions. CREA's previous forecast suggested that average price increases in the second half of 2009 would likely result in mild a rebound in listings. In the third quarter of 2009, the number of new listings did post the first quarterly increase in more than a year, which coincided with the return of strong average price increases. New residential listings are expected to continue trending upward.
The national MLS average home price is forecast to climb 4.2 per cent in 2009, reaching a record $317,900. This is an upward revision from the 1.5 per cent gain in CREA's previous forecast, and reflects the high degree to which the national average price was skewed downward last year by a significant decline in activity in Canada's priciest markets, and then upward by the rebound in activity.
Alberta remains the only province with a forecast decline in average price in 2009 (-3.0 per cent). Average prices are forecast to rise in all other provinces, with gains ranging from a low of 1.5 per cent in British Columbia to 13.1 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Average prices are forecast to climb a further 4.7 per cent in 2010. Much of the annual increase reflects weakness in the average price in first quarter of 2009, which is not expected to repeat in 2010. Average sale prices are forecast to rise in every province in 2010.
The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS average price is forecast to climb 2.9 per cent in 2009, with a further 4.0 per cent rise in 2010. CREA previously forecast that the weighted national average price for MLS homes sales would hold steady from 2009 to 2010.
"Pent-up demand built in late 2008 and early 2009, as many buyers moved to the sidelines pending an improved economic outlook," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "With the economic outlook having improved since then, the release of that pent-up demand will boost activity over the rest of the year and in 2010."
"Significant weakness in activity and average prices seen in late 2008 and earlier this year is not expected to repeat in 2010, so 2010 will look a lot better by comparison," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "The raised outlook for MLS sales activity in 2010 still puts annual activity below the pre-recession peak recorded for 2007."
CREA MLS Residential Market Forecast:
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2008 2009 2010
Annual Annual Annual
MLS residential percen- percen- percen-
unit sales tage 2009 tage 2010 tage
forecast 2008 change Forecast change Forecast change
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Canada 431,823 -17.1 460,200 6.6 492,300 7.0
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British Columbia 68,923 -33.0 84,700 22.9 95,400 12.6
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Alberta 56,399 -21.0 58,050 2.9 64,800 11.6
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Saskatchewan 10,194 -15.4 10,700 5.0 11,400 6.5
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Manitoba 13,525 -2.9 13,050 -3.5 14,050 7.7
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Ontario 181,001 -15.2 191,700 5.9 200,400 4.5
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Quebec 76,762 -4.8 78,900 2.8 82,150 4.1
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New Brunswick 7,555 -7.4 6,950 -8.0 7,200 3.6
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Nova Scotia 10,869 -8.3 10,000 -8.0 10,550 5.5
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Prince Edward
Island 1,413 -20.1 1,450 2.6 1,450 0.0
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Newfoundland 4,695 5.0 4,250 -9.5 4,300 1.2
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2008 2009 2010
Annual Annual Annual
MLS residential percen- percen- percen-
average price tage 2009 tage 2010 tage
forecast 2008 change Forecast change Forecast change
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Canada 304,971 -0.7 317,900 4.2 333,000 4.7
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British Columbia 454,599 3.5 461,600 1.5 478,900 3.7
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Alberta 352,857 -0.9 342,300 -3.0 360,500 5.3
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Saskatchewan 224,592 28.8 233,200 3.8 244,700 4.9
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Manitoba 190,296 12.5 202,600 6.5 218,700 7.9
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Ontario 302,354 0.9 315,100 4.2 326,800 3.7
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Quebec 215,307 3.7 224,300 4.2 232,400 3.6
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New Brunswick 145,762 6.7 153,600 5.4 158,100 2.9
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Nova Scotia 189,932 4.9 196,000 3.2 204,100 4.1
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Prince Edward
Island 139,944 4.9 146,900 5.0 150,700 2.6
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Newfoundland 178,477 19.6 201,900 13.1 213,600 5.8
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Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association
November 16, 2009 in Canadian Market Forecast | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Lender warns of housing bubble
Low interest rates have caused some Canadians to act "irrationally" in the housing market, potentially taking on too much debt that could lead to economic difficulties down the road, says the president and CEO of ING Direct Canada. "You have situations in some markets such as Toronto where people are making multiple offers for homes, they are paying thousands more and waiving conditions. It gives me concern they may not be thinking rationally, and this could lead to problems," Peter Aceto said in an interview Wednesday.
"Canadians are also paying their homes off slower and slower, and the concern for me is that they are buying more house than they can really afford." Aceto said he is so concerned about the market that he has instructed staff to advise customers not to go with longer-term amortizations if they can help it. More than 50 per cent of all mortgages in Canada this year were amortizations longer than the standard 25 years, says Aceto.
As a result, the lender said he is worried that some consumers are biting off more than they can chew. "It's almost as if Torontonians feel very concerned they are missing something with such low rates." said Aceto. "The problem is: can they afford to pay for their mortgage five years from now, when interest rates go back up?"
Sales of existing homes in the Toronto area were up 64 per cent in October from the same time last year, while average prices hit a record $423,559, up 20 per cent. Bidding wars have become common in choice neighbourhoods.
See full story by Tony Wong in the Toronto Star »
November 12, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Toronto Real Estate Board reports:
October year-over-year MLS transactions up 64%.
In October 2009, Greater Toronto Realtors reported 8,476 sales, up 64 per cent from October 2008. The average price for October transactions was $423,559 - up by 20 per cent compared to the same month last year. "Strong sales growth has occurred across many property classes - from price ranges that would attract first-time buyers to luxury properties selling for over one million dollars," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "The highest rate of sales growth in October was experienced for properties selling for over $750,000. In contrast, luxury home sales declined at an above-average rate last year."
Year-to-date sales, at 74,721, were up nine per cent compared to the first ten months of 2008. Average price, at $392,264 was up by almost three per cent.
"After a short dip in the winter, the average home price in the GTA has rebounded because sales have been high relative to listings," according to Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Watch for listings to rebound in 2010 as home owners react to the strong sales and price growth experienced in the latter half of this year."
Summary Of October Sales And Average Price
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October
2009 2008
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Average
Sales Price Sales Average Price
City of Toronto ("416") 3,554 $464,212 2,136 $376,897
Rest of GTA ("905") 4,922 $394,205 3,019 $336,049
GTA 8,476 $423,559 5,155 $352,974
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Source: Toronto Real Estate Board's Market Watch report »
November 5, 2009 in Toronto Real Estate Update | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Luxury housing sales edge higher
Purchasers take advantage of buying opportunities in Ontario-Atlantic Canada, says RE/MAX
Luxury homes sales continue to accelerate as economic recovery takes hold in major markets in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released by RE/MAX. The RE/MAX Upper End Report found that momentum is building in St. John's, Saint John, Halifax-Dartmouth, Ottawa, Kingston, Greater Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, and London as purchasers realize that the best buying period in recent history is about to come to a close. Sales are already on par or ahead of last year's levels in 50 per cent of cities surveyed, while the remaining markets are set to reach 2008 figures by year-end.
"Twelve months of healthy home buying activity have clearly been crammed into five short months," says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. "It's hard to believe that the transition in the market began in May. We've seen steady upward momentum since that time, with solid year-over-year gains posted each and every month."
Pent-up demand and greater affordability have been the catalyst. Increased selection in all markets - except Greater Toronto - as well as record low interest rates have also helped fuel move-up activity from Ontario to Newfoundland.
Leading in terms of sales appreciation is London, Ontario where the number of homes sold, priced in excess of $500,000, has climbed 11 per cent from January to September 2009, compared to one year ago. Greater Toronto and Ottawa both reported a one per cent increase in the number of homes sold in the top end during the same period. Within the GTA, Richmond Hill/Thornhill is particularly heated, with sales up 24 per cent over 2008 levels, followed by Mississauga - up 10 per cent. St. John's, Newfoundland is on par with year-ago figures.
Of the six markets reporting a year-over-year decrease in sales, four are off by just a handful of transactions (10 units or less), including Halifax-Dartmouth (off eight units), Kingston & Area (off three units), Toronto - West End (off 10 units), and Oakville (off five units). Activity in the remaining two markets-Saint John and Hamilton-Burlington-is on the upswing, with the gap between 2008 and 2009 narrowing each month.
"A considerable shift is underway in the upper end," explains Polzler. "The price correction that we witnessed earlier in the year is over and prices have since firmed up. Conditions are more balanced across the board or leaning toward seller's territory once again. The one exception is the Greater Toronto Area -- now largely a seller's market -- with bidding wars making a comeback amid tight inventory levels. The strength of the luxury segment is evident. This is now a real estate market with all sectors working in tandem."
Highlights:
- Upper end sales started to move upward as positive indicators of economic recovery began to emerge. The momentum is expected to continue as Canada edges closer to positive periods of GDP growth in Q4 2009 and in 2010.
- Locals are fuelling luxury sales in the majority of markets surveyed. Activity among out-of-province and international purchasers has waned from one year ago, although their presence in still evident in some markets.
- Sixty-one properties in Canada are currently priced over $10 million, with 18 of those located in Ontario. The priciest Ontario home is nestled in Toronto's prestigious Bridle Path area, listed at $23 million.
- Three hundred properties currently listed for sale are priced over $5 million in Canada.
- In Atlantic Canada, there are 22 listings in excess of $2 million - 13 in Nova Scotia, five in New Brunswick and two in Prince Edward Island. The most expensive property in Atlantic Canada is a $7.75 million estate on a bluff fronting the Atlantic Ocean on PEI's north coast.
See the full RE/MAX Upper End Report 2009 »
November 4, 2009 in Toronto Real Estate Update | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Competition Bureau acts on MLS fees
Tony Wong's front page article in the Toronto Star:
Canadians in the housing market will pay less in realty commissions and fees if the federal Competition Bureau has its way. In a landmark investigation, the bureau has concluded the Canadian Real Estate Association has anti-competitive rules and must change its ways, according to documents obtained by the Star.
Details of a settlement have yet to be decided, but the bureau's findings are expected to have a profound impact on the real estate industry – by permitting more innovative discount brokers into the market while allowing sellers to list their properties less expensively on the Multiple Listing Service.
With a membership of more than 96,000, Ottawa-based CREA is the largest real estate organization in Canada and represents the majority of the nation's realtors.
"The Bureau is concerned that CREA's rules have restricted consumer choice and limited the scope of alternative business models," says an internal memo by CREA president Dale Ripplinger. "Unfortunately, the Bureau seems to believe that CREA's rules ... create restrictions and barriers."
The bureau launched its investigation in 2007. Consumers have complained in the past about high realty fees and the need for more affordable services. The vendor of an average-priced $400,000 home in Toronto can pay a commission of as much as 5 per cent, or $20,000.
"This is absolute, total vindication," says Lawrence Dale, an owner of now-defunct Realtysellers, a Toronto-based discount broker that closed in 2006. "Once they've reached their settlement it means that the average guy on the street will be able to choose their real estate services and pay less for them."
CREA executives met with the bureau on Oct. 23 to hear the long-anticipated results, according to the letter. "At that meeting the Bureau set out the conclusions of their inquiry and their proposed remedy," says Ripplinger. "The Bureau's position is that if CREA does not remove these restrictions, the Commissioner of Competiton will initiate an application before the Competition Tribunal."
Ripplinger says CREA decided not to go before the tribunal, which can administer penalties, but is pursuing a settlement.
According to Ripplinger, CREA rules the bureau wants changed include those that say the listing realtor must act as the agent of the seller and receive and present all offers to the seller, and property information cannot be posted on the Multiple Listing Service without an agent representing the seller.
Changes to these rules would mean offers could be sent directly to the seller without the involvement of the listing agent. Consumers could likely have their listings posted on the MLS for a small fee.
Dale and partner Stephen Moranis claim they were forced to shut down their company because of rules implemented in 2007 by the realtor's association. Realtysellers offered services such as allowing consumers to post listings for a few hundred dollars on the MLS website, where more than 90 per cent of all home sales are made. The company is suing CREA and the Toronto Real Estate Board.
CREA owns the rights to the MLS.
In a separate lawsuit against TREB, Fraser Beach, another Toronto realtor, alleges the organization terminated his MLS access because he launched a discount brokerage service. A decision by Ontario Superior Court of Ontario Justice David Brown is expected soon.
TREB has argued it didn't block his access to the MLS for competitive reasons, but simply because he did not follow membership rules.
Both CREA and TREB have denied all allegations. A Toronto Real Estate Board spokesperson says the board does not comment on ongoing legal matters. Officials of the Competition Bureau were not available for comment Sunday.
Although the real estate association has agreed to reach a settlement, Ripplinger stressed "CREA does not agree with the Bureau's findings and conclusions, either as a matter of fact or as a matter of law." The association has called an emergency meeting for all member boards in December to discuss rule changes demanded by the Bureau.
Source: Tony Wong in the Toronto Star »
November 2, 2009 in Save on Comission Fees | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Rebound hammers affordability
Housing affordability deteriorated sharply in Toronto in the third quarter of 2009 as home prices spiked above pre-recession levels. "The big improvement in stock markets likely helped drive prices higher, especially since Toronto has many people who work in the financial services area," Hélène Bégin, senior economist at Desjardins Bank, said in an interview yesterday.
Low interest rates, pent-up demand and a lack of listings saw average Toronto prices for existing homes hit $402,762 in the July-September period, the largest such increase of any Canadian city.
See article by Tony Wong in the Toronto Star »
October 29, 2009 in Toronto Real Estate Trends | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
American home resale sales jump 9.4%
Home resales in September clocked the largest monthly increase in 26 years as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires. Sales jumped 9.4 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 5.1 million in August, the National Association of Realtors said Friday.
That pace was the strongest in two years and beat Wall Street forecasts. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual rate of 5.35 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
"There's a miniboom going on in the housing market," said Thomas Popik, who conducts a monthly survey of real estate agents for Campbell Communications.
Nationwide sales are up nearly 24 per cent from their bottom in January, but are still down 23 per cent from four years ago.
But prices continued to drag with foreclosures and short sales, where the mortgage exceeds the sales price. The median price last month was $174,900 (U.S.), down almost 9 per cent from $191,200 a year earlier, and slightly lower than August's median of $177,300.
The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 7 per cent to 3.63 million. That's less than an eight-month supply at the current sales pace, and the lowest level since March 2007.
Sales rose especially in the west, where they grew 13 per cent from a month earlier. Foreclosure sales are booming in cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and Las Vegas.
First-time homebuyers and investors are snapping up those homes and taking advantage of low mortgage rates. They can also receive a tax credit of 10 per cent of the sales price, up to $8,000, if the sale is completed by the end of November.
The credit is so important to some buyers they are adding a clause to their contracts, allowing them to back out if the sale doesn't close by Nov. 30. But, economists note that cheap foreclosures and mortgage rates are also adding to the boom.
"We think the housing market has touched bottom and it is now only a matter of time until home prices stabilize – something that we anticipate to occur in late 2010," wrote Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.
Prices could fall further because rising unemployment leads to more foreclosures. The jobless rate, currently at 9.8 per cent, is expected to rise as high as 10.5 per cent next year, causing more people to fall behind on their mortgages.
"There's more supply that's going to come into the marketplace," said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real estate website Zillow.com. "That additional supply will outpace demand."
With concerns about the housing market still prominent, Congress is considering several proposals to extend the tax credit. Senators Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., and Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., want to extend it through June 30, and expand it to include all home buyers, at an estimated cost of $16.7 billion.
Realtors and homebuilders are loudly in favour, arguing that the tax credit is crucial to get the housing market back on its feet.
"We are not there in terms of removing the consumer fear factor," said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist.
One potential roadblock to an extension also emerged this week. There are concerns that some of the 1.5 million applications for the tax credit are fraudulent.
Source: Associated Press
October 24, 2009 in World View [of real estate] | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
